How much does a disruption cost?

The Money Question

In designing our new product, the Risk Assessment Toolkit, one of the things we needed to do was model the cost of disruption of an internal activity or process.

External facing activities are often the easiest to discuss: if our web site or phone system goes down, it’s clear that we can’t take customer orders. If the shipping department is under water, then goods can’t be shipped. But what about less defined activities such as Human Resources, or Marketing. How much does a disruption in one of these departments cost?

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Strategic Risk Choices: The One Basket Approach

Are you sure you still want to eat me?

Canadian Beef has a problem. A big problem.

Right now there is the largest recall ever of beef due to to possible contamination with E. coli O157:H7. The recall list is now so long that it has become impossible to summarize.

So Canadian consumers have a problem: they can either not eat beef, carry around with them a list of affected beef products which is several pages long, or treat all beef products as potentially contaminated.

In fact US consumers also have a problem: over 900,000 pounds of beef products subject to recall were shipped across the border.

But the point of interest here is not the problems for the consumer, but the risk management choice made by XL Foods, the company concerned. As far as I can tell,  XL Foods has one beef processing plant, XL Lakeside,  in Brooks, Alberta. No doubt it is a very efficient plant: it’s apparently the second largest in Canada, and slaughters about one third of Canadian cattle. I don’t doubt that every reasonable effort has been made to  make it safe, but this is the classic “put all your eggs in one basket” strategy in action. So with a problem of food contamination shutting down that one plant, the company is not in a good position.

In addition, the consistent branding across all product lines means that the company’s other plants are also affected.  (It’s a business to business brand, which is why you or I haven’t heard of it – the food is re-packaged under another customer’s label before we buy it).

Single-branding and large processing facilities are cost-efficient when everything goes well. But when the E Coli hits the fan (yes, fecal contamination is one of the main routes by which the pathogen is transmitted) it’s also the worst possible strategy from a risk perspective: any problem affects the company as a whole and shuts down the entire production.

The XL Foods strategy in responding to the problem so far has been interesting: no press releases, no news conferences, no mention of the beef recall on their website.  Perhaps they are hoping it will all just go away.

It won’t. It’s here to stay. Just try Googling XL Foods.


It’s also an interesting case of customer risk: for many ranchers in Alberta, XL Foods was their only customer.

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What percentage of businesses fail following a disaster?

There are a number of statistics floating around which are often quoted in articles but never attributed. One of them is the percentage of businesses that fail in the months  following a disaster.

The range for this mythical figure is quite high. I’ve seen 70% quoted quite often. Sometimes the number is 80%. Other times it is a more plausible 40%.

I’ve searched for a reliable source for this number. Was it a survey of businesses following 9/11? The Manchester bombing? Hurricane Andrew? I think now that I have finally found the answer to this question.

So what is the percentage of businesses that fail following a disaster?

The answer is simply this: it does not matter.

Suppose you had access to the data to compute this statistic, what would it actually tell you? There were 18,000 small businesses “… dislocated, disrupted, or destroyed” by 9/11 according to a congressional report. But how many of those were hot dog vendors? Retail shops with a single outlet? Manufacturers of candles? Bicycle couriers? Financial service companies?

Comparing ourselves to this magic percentage does not help us at all with the question we really need to answer: how likely are we to go out of business following a disaster?

The statistics for an arbitrary group of companies is only of interest to editorial writers and politicians. For the rest of us, what matters is only how different types of disaster will affect us – something that we can only determine through a thorough examination of our own business.

 

 

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